Russia’s Nuclear Exports Surge: Analysis and Implications

Russia’s nuclear exports have nearly doubled in the past two years, according to Tortoise analysis, with more than a third of these exports going to the US and France, two Western countries providing military support to Ukraine.

The rise in Russia’s nuclear exports comes at a time when the country has been threatening the West with nuclear weapons amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This dual approach by Russia – both supplying nuclear fuel and technology while also flexing its nuclear capabilities – has put Europe in a precarious position.

Nuclear power generation has seen a resurgence as countries seek to reduce their reliance on oil and gas for energy production. However, this increased demand has led to greater dependence on Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear power company, which controls a significant portion of the global nuclear fuel processing capacity.

While some European countries have called for nuclear materials to be included in energy sanctions against Russia, others, like Hungary, with a Russian-built nuclear plant, have opposed such measures.

– Russia’s total nuclear exports grew from $1.6 billion to $3.1 billion between 2021 and 2023.
– The US saw an increase in imports of Russian nuclear fuel and technology from $650 million in 2022 to $900 million in 2023.
– France purchased $324 million worth of Russian nuclear technology last year amid plans for Europe’s most ambitious nuclear construction program.
– Turkey also saw a significant increase in its imports of Russian nuclear materials, rising from $82 million to $200 million, a 144% increase in a year.

Russia’s involvement in the occupation of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has raised concerns about the safety and security of the facility. Reports indicate that Ukrainian employees have been coerced into signing contracts with Rosatom, and some have been detained and tortured by Russian forces.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that recent drone attacks at the Zaporizhzhia plant significantly increase the risk of a nuclear accident, underscoring the urgent need for international action to prevent a potential catastrophe.

While some European countries, like Belgium and Bulgaria, are seeking to reduce their reliance on Russian nuclear fuel by turning to other suppliers, the long-term nature of nuclear contracts and the strategic importance of the sector for Moscow could complicate efforts to diversify energy sources.

Rosatom’s expansion into Africa and the surging imports of nuclear materials from Russia by a country like Kazakhstan indicate the potential for Russia to solidify its influence in the global nuclear energy market.

As tensions continue to rise in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape, the issue of nuclear proliferation and dependence on Russian nuclear technology remains a critical concern for the international community. It underscores the need for concerted efforts to ensure the safety, security, and sustainability of nuclear energy production worldwide.